The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) measures how much world tensions are dominating the news. It counts articles about wars, terrorist attacks, nuclear threats, and political crises across 11 major newspapers. A score of 100 is the historical average (1985–2019). Above 150 means the world feels unusually dangerous.
How does it affect gold?
When the world feels dangerous, investors buy gold to protect their wealth. Gold has no political risk — it can't be sanctioned, frozen, or defaulted on.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, GPR spiked above 200 and gold jumped over $200 in weeks. When the Middle East escalated in 2023–2024, the same pattern repeated.