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Market open·Macro & geopolitical analysis of gold (XAU/USD) — DXY, real yields, central bank demand, COT positioning, ETF flows and more.

Gold (XAU/USD) — SEP 8, 2026, 11:42 PM UTC

$4,358.54USD/oz
▲ +$2.84 · +0.07%today · open $4,412.87
connecting...
L: $4,352  ·  H: $4,442
$4,40011:47 PM5:32 AM11:17 AM4:57 PM11:42 PM
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Gold Macro Environment
NEUTRAL
3 bullish · 3 bearish of 14 indicators
What's driving gold right now?

These indicators explain the vast majority of gold's daily price movements. Each one has a direct, measurable influence on XAU/USD.

Bearish / Bullish reflects the current reading's impact on gold — not the indicator's own direction

~100% influence on gold·Click any indicator to see its full analysis
Structural & geopolitical drivers
LONG TERM

These factors don't move gold tomorrow — they move it over weeks, months, or years. They are the foundation on which daily moves are built.

🏦
Central Bank Purchases
Structural · months/years
Reaccelerating
850.1t (2025)
updated weekly

Central banks just logged their biggest quarterly gold haul in over a year, and Goldman thinks it keeps going.

Read full analysis →
🌐
De-dollarization
Structural · years/decade
Gradual, still building
updated weekly

No fresh reserve numbers this cycle, but UBS says the slow drift away from the dollar still points straight at gold.

Read full analysis →
⚔️
Geopolitical Risk
Situational · weeks/months
Rising, near elevated
145.449051 GPR
updated daily

A second shipping chokepoint just came under threat, and gold's risk premium is taking notice

Read full analysis →
⛏️
Mine Supply Constraints
Structural · years
Stuck near flat
3814.6t (2025)
updated weekly

Mines are pumping out the same gold they did in 2018, even with prices at records and a few standout mines shining.

Read full analysis →
Factor attribution — today's movement
DXY (Dollar weakness)1%
Real Yield (Yield decline)18%
VIX / Risk (Safe haven demand)74%
ETF Flows (GLD Holdings)1%
Other factors6%

Estimated relative weight of each factor in today's +$24.50 movement. Calculated based on historical correlations and the magnitude of each variable's move.

DXY98.79▼ 0.06%
Real Yield2.42%▼ 1.22%
VIX15.7▲ +8.19%
GLD Flows1011t▼ 0.21%